Hey, everyone.
For those of you who don't know who I am since this topic is a little outside of my usual ones, I am Bryan C. Laesch, The Writer. I mostly do creative writing and write about INTJ theory. For those of you who do know me and wonder why I'm tackling the self-driving car, well, listen up.
Here's the deal: a lot of people are talking sh*t about how the autonomous car will be the death of the auto industry. But there's a problem with that assumption: the people talking that smack aren't car people. They're reporters, liberals, environmentalists, city slickers, and other assorted enemies of the automobile. None of them are regular schmucks living in middle America who have multiple family members, working in the auto industry and have multiple family members and friends who are petrolheads. So let this Michigan boy from Metro Detroit enlighten you as to why the autonomous car won't kill the auto industry.
1. Autonomous Cars Are Still Cars
So long as cars exist--no, scratch that--so long as people have a desire for sophisticated, complex, and powerful personal conveyances of any kind, car companies, or personal conveyance companies, will always exist because someone has to make the damn things in order for them to exist. Uber, Lyft, and anyone else in the transport industry can't possibly buy enough autonomous cars to cover the demand created by all the drivers and riders in the world. Not to mention, even if they could, they would still need someone to build new models when technology improves.
2. Expense
People keep saying we'll have autonomous cars by 2021 or whatever, but that doesn't mean squat. Just because they exist doesn't mean people are going to buy them. But more importantly, they're going to be as expensive as balls! Ever heard of the electric car? Know why it hasn't taken off? It's too damn expensive. Even a used Tesla model with 20,000 miles on it is still 60 grand for what is essentially a 4-door family sedan that can be had from any of the Big Three for a fraction of that.
3. The Transition Won't Be Immediate
Like I said in the last point, not everyone is going to buy an autonomous car. But even those who do, not all of them are going to switch over immediately. Get this, many people keep a car for around six years, and the average age of any car today is about 12. The used car business has plenty of business, and people who purchase a new car either the year autonomous cars go on sale or the year before are not just going to trade in their new car for a slightly newer car. It's a waste of money.
4. Not Everyone Wants Autonomous Cars
See, here in Michigan, despite the fact that our roads are absolutely terrible, most of us are still car people. We like cars. We like driving. We have a strong car culture. Now, that doesn't mean autonomous cars can't have a culture, but I don't see very many people getting excited over something they can't really play with. You may be able to work on it, but you can't drive it, so what's the point? But if it's a car I can drive, now that's worth investing in because then I can experience first hand, first foot, first eye, and first ass cheek the hard work I've put into my machine.
5. Not Everyone Trusts Autonomous Cars
I know I certainly don't. I would never trust any machine to completely take over for me. Even if I had an autonomous car, I would always sit in the driver's seat ready to take over in the case of an emergency, assuming of course I could interfere. Depending on the programming put in self-driving cars, they may not allow the driver to interfere for legal reasons even if it means the people in the car end up in a horrible accident. And I don't want to leave that decision up to a bunch of boffins who are just doing what they need to in order to get paid.
6. People Like Owning Cars
Remember how I said people like cars? Well, people like owning them. Ever heard of Jay Leno. He has 169 cars alone, not including 117 motorcycles. My brother has damn near 20 cars himself. Some of them are parts cars, but most of the cars he owns he got because he wanted to own them or because he had a purpose in mind for them. So, even with services like Uber and Lyft, not everyone is going to use those services. People will want to own their own cars, and not rent.
7. The Technology Won't Be Perfect
Everyone knows that new technology, as great as it is, usually sucks because all sorts of problems start showing up that didn't show up in testing. All it will take is one bad review or one bad news story, and the autonomous car can be dead before it ever leaves the womb. All it takes is one famous person, like Bill Gates, to buy the first autonomous car on the market and get killed due to a problem in its programming. Pile up enough stories like that, especially about beloved celebrities, and people will be avoiding the autonomous car more than a skunk with irritable bowel syndrome.
8. Do-It-Yourselfers
There are lots of people out there who don't believe in taking their broken goods to a professional to get fixed. I don't know if it's because they're cheap, they're confident, or just lazy, but there will be people out there who think they will be able to service or customize their autonomous vehicle. And one day, you're going to find yourself on a two-way road, and this DIY-er will be coming in your direction in his self-serviced, self-driving car. Doesn't that make you feel good?
9. Some Roads Are Too Perilous for Autonomous Cars
There are some roads in the world that no self-driving car will be able to navigate. Take Bolivia's Death Road. In some places, there's not even enough room for two cars to pass by each other. Sometimes there will only be three wheels on the road. And sometimes, even driving the road in a regular car is too perilous. Next, take a look at the traffic in India. Even Indians think the traffic is insane. There's no way an autonomous car could navigate an Indian rush hour.
10. Millennials Will Have to Buy Cars Eventually
I know, I know; this one isn't all that much about autonomous cars. But when people talk about the death of the auto industry, one of the things they mention besides autonomous cars is that Millennials aren't buying them. Well, number one, just because they're not buying cars now doesn't mean they will never buy cars, and number two, Millennials aren't the last generation of the human race. There's one coming after them and reports suggest they're more conservative than the dusty, old conservatives we have today, which probably means they're going to want to buy and drive a car.
Also, Millennials could be buying cars at the same rate that older generations are surrendering theirs, so maybe the numbers are just even. Plus, one day, Millennials are either going to look at each other, or their parents are going to look at them, and they're going to say, "This is bullsh*t!" and they'll end up joining the real world, which includes car ownership.
Alas, have no fear dear petrol friends. The car's future is assured. Why, even the internal combustion engine could be around for another century before it is definitively replaced, and even then, there will be clubs out there devoted to the ICE, so it's not likely to die until we do. But cars in general, whether they're diesel, gas, electric, autonomous or flying, cars will be around for a long, long, long time. Until teleporters are invented. But, I'm pretty sure that will never happen.
I hope you enjoyed this rant. I hope to make more in the future.
Keep writing, my friends.
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